Nowhere is the adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” truer than in the first past the post system. Simple electoral maths means that even if a party gains few votes it can still win significant numbers of seats as long as its main opponent is losing more votes.
Of course, that is part of the story of the 2024 General Election—while Labour only improved its vote share by two points in Great Britain, it was able to gain 180 seats from the Tories, whose own vote share fell by 20 points. While the Conservative vote splintered in many different directions, a significant chunk of those who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 voted for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in July. Those defections helped Labour win scores of seats the Conservatives could otherwise have held.
Reports that Labour aides were delighted at Nigel Farage’s entry are therefore understandable. But as Reform UK meets for its first conference after winning five MPs, it’s worth questioning how helpful Reform actually was to Labour. As Farage pledges to turn his sights on the governing party, what danger awaits them?
Advocates of the ‘leaving Reform and the Tories to it’ strategy point to the fact that six times as many Reform voters were former Conservatives than Labour voters. However, that analysis ignores that – while Labour did not lose much of its existing ‘progressive’ base from 2019 – Reform’s entry did mean Labour won back fewer of the ‘2019 lost voters’ in places like the Red Wall. In fact, analysis of British Election Study data suggests that those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives during the Corbyn years were disproportionately likely to vote Reform in July.
That Labour-Tory-Reform journey was vividly apparent in our focus groups. Lifelong Labour voters who backed Boris Johnson in 2019, disillusioned with what they saw as Tory broken promises, told us that rather than returning to the Labour fold they were instead tempted by Nigel Farage’s straight-talking approach.
By failing to take the fight to Reform, Labour ceded these voters to Farage – voters who could have bolstered Labour’s coalition. While it is seats that matter in a Parliamentary system, winning on such a low share of the vote brings its own challenges – as Labour’s short honeymoon and declining approval ratings show. Labour now faces a situation where Reform is in second place in 90 of their seats.
The question then is, having ignored Reform at the last election, can they stop Nigel Farage’s Party from advancing into their territory, and even win Reform votes back,
The Reform vote is not homogeneous. Instead, there are two distinct types of Reform voter. The more akin to the radical right on the Continent – very online, more willing to engage in conspiracy-theory-based thinking, unhappy with the multi-ethnic nature of the UK and more willing to condone the actions of rioters this summer. Labour is unlikely to win these voters back. But the second, larger group Reform voters are better seen as populist democrats: voters who are fed up with a status quo which feels rigged against them – but who fundamentally back democratic norms. These voters should be Labour’s target.
How to do that? Part of the answer inevitably lies in immigration. For both existing Reform voters, and Labour voters tempted by Reform, immigration is the key issue. Addressing it does not mean tough rhetoric that raises the salience without offering solutions, but rather delivering practical solutions that visibly reduce channel crossings, pay proper attention to integration and tackle skill gaps through domestic upskilling too.
But immigration alone is not enough – Labour needs to show that our democracy can and will work for those disillusioned with it. Above all the Government needs to demonstrate that contribution is rewarded. From our focus groups, it’s clear that one of the reasons the Winter Fuel Allowance row is so toxic is that those pensioners who feel like they have worked hard and saved for retirement are being penalised. When people feel that the status quo leaves them with nothing to show for their efforts, they will be tempted by the extremes.
Finally, there is Farage – while Nigel Farage is an effective politician he is also one of the most divisive. Our polling suggested Reform lowered their ceiling during the election campaign by failing to tackle racism in its ranks and not supporting Ukraine. Labour should be unafraid to challenge Farage in those areas, and also on economic policy or the NHS where his rhetoric is out of line with public opinion.
If Labour continues to sit out the fight with Reform UK and fails to convince Reform-adjacent voters that a mainstream centre-left party can deliver for them, the chances of them holding power will be severe. Reform may have been the Tories’ problem in July, but they are Labour’s problem now.
[See also: Nigel Farage is coming for the Labour Party]
Content from our partners
Related
